Morgan Rogers' Rich Vein of Form Drives The Villans' Unlikely Push for Glory
It was eight weeks ago when the Villa attacker found himself on the pitch at Sunderland, seeming perplexed while Unai Emery berated him for failing to anticipate a through-ball. Back then, as Villa endured a six-game winless run, doubts remained whether Rogers' form were a symptom or the source for the side's broader struggles.
“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”
In the latest match, though, the touchline reaction was much more joyous. When Rogers swept in his second strike to reclaim Villa's lead, Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide and shouted in triumph. The Birmingham club were on their way to a tenth straight victory , after failing to win any of their first six games, find themselves just three points behind table-toppers Arsenal.
Is Aston Villa Serious Title Contenders?
This is an exceptionally difficult question to address. The historical record, the traditional standing of this institution, indicates otherwise. Furthermore, their performances haven't been completely commanding during this run, even as the positive results have piled up.
Per statistical analysis, twice all season have Villa had an expected goals figure significantly higher than the opposition. For a side that have put together a ten-match winning streak, they appear weirdly vulnerable – but right now the tight outcomes are falling their way.
The Reliant Strategy
The current approach appears to be to engage in a shootout with rivals before hoping their talisman to save the day with two clinical strikes. This was the case away to Leeds, it occurred against West Ham, and once more versus Manchester United.
Rogers' first goal stemmed from an exquisite effort, curled precisely inside the goal frame from the edge of the area. For his second was essentially a slight scruffier version of goal number one as he pounced on a pass from Watkins.
“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”
Is It Sustainable?
Common sense dictates no. In the recent win, the opponents managed a greater number of attempts and more direct attempts. They have won each of their last eight by a single goal. The defence has been breached in nearly all of those fixtures.
Regression to the mean may well be the most significant challenge Villa will encounter over the coming weeks. Rogers, almost certainly, cannot maintain drilling the ball into the top corner indefinitely.
Reasons for Optimism
Maybe there exists a different scenario whereby, rather than luck running out, performances begin to trend towards results. Key players could still find their top level.
- The main striker may begin to adding to his goal tally.
- The attacking talent might become the force he showed during his peak.
- Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres are set to regain fitness, fortifying a sometimes shaky defensive unit.
Perhaps there is in that the seeds of a title challenge, yet it seems unlikely cannot keep relying on a single individual.
Enjoying the Ride
However, this is a surprise. Nobody thought the team would sit third at Christmas. And without a doubt earlier this season, nobody thought Rogers by the end of the year would be spearheading a hunt for the title while establishing himself as a crucial player for the national team.
This winning streak must be cherished exactly since it seems so surreal. When Rogers faced the North End at the final whistle conducting the cheers, he seemed to be thoroughly enjoying it. Which he fully merits. These runs of form are uncommon in the sport and ought to be celebrated.